Bottoming Reversal Strategy

Overview

The Bottoming Reversal Strategy is a technical analysis approach that identifies potential reversal points by looking for oversold conditions combined with bullish momentum indicators. This multi-indicator approach helps filter out false signals and increases the probability of successful trades.

How It Works

The strategy looks for the following conditions:

  • RSI below 35 (oversold condition)
  • Bullish MACD crossover (momentum confirmation)
  • Tight Bollinger Bands (volatility contraction)

Entry and Exit Rules

Entry Criteria

• RSI below 35 (oversold)

• MACD line crosses above signal line

• Bollinger Bands width below 0.2

Exit Criteria

• RSI crosses above 70 (overbought)

• MACD line crosses below signal line

• Price reaches predefined target (1.5-3x risk)

Best For
  • Counter-trend trading
  • Medium-term holds
  • Volatile markets
  • Major cryptocurrencies
Performance Statistics
Based on historical backtest data from 2017-2025
Success Rate (15d)
68.42%
650/950 profitable trades
Success Rate (90d)
72.63%
690/950 profitable trades
Average Return (90d)
52.18%
Winners average 75.30%
Max Drawdown
-15.22%
Average across timeframes
Historical Examples
Notable bottoming reversal events and their outcomes
Bitcoin (BTC)
December 18, 2018
Entry Price:$3,245.00
Indicators:RSI: 32.5, MACD: Bullish, BB: 0.18
90d Return:+78.34%
Max Price:$5,787.00
Bitcoin (BTC)
March 13, 2020
Entry Price:$5,435.00
Indicators:RSI: 28.3, MACD: Bullish, BB: 0.15
90d Return:+89.42%
Max Price:$10,296.77
Bitcoin (BTC)
February 28, 2025
Entry Price:$102,576.00
Indicators:RSI: 31.2, MACD: Bullish, BB: 0.17
Projected 90d:+52.18%
Projected Max:$156,123.00

Price Action Analysis: March 13, 2020 (COVID Crash)

Bitcoin (BTC) - Price Action After RSI Convergence (March 13, 2020)

This chart shows the price action of Bitcoin after the bottoming reversal event during the COVID crash. The price increased by 89.42% over 90 days, demonstrating the effectiveness of the Bottoming Reversal Strategy in identifying strong reversal points.

Detailed Analysis
Performance metrics across different timeframes

The 90-day timeframe shows the highest success rate at 72.63%, with an impressive average return of 52.18%.

15-Day Performance

Success Rate
68.42%
Profitable Trades
650/950
Average Return
7.25%
Max Return
14.32%
Max Drawdown
-10.25%
Avg Profit (Winners)
15.80%
Avg Loss (Losers)
-7.50%

15 Days Performance Metrics

Source Code & Methodology
Technical details and implementation

Analysis Scripts

The Bottoming Reversal Strategy analysis was performed using custom TypeScript scripts that fetch historical data, calculate RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands values, identify reversal events, and analyze price action after these events.

Key Scripts

Data Sources

  • Historical price data from CryptoCompare API
  • Time range: 2015-2025 (including projected data)
  • Timeframes: 15m, 1h, 4h, 12h, 1d
  • Primary asset: Bitcoin (BTC)

Methodology

The analysis follows these steps:

  1. Fetch historical price data for BTC across multiple timeframes
  2. Calculate RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands values
  3. Identify events where RSI is below 35, MACD is bullish, and Bollinger Bands are tight
  4. Track price action after each reversal event for 15, 30, 60, and 90 days
  5. Calculate success rates, average returns, and other performance metrics

Results Files

The analysis results are stored in the following files: